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pm-watcher yixuuuan/pm-watcher

World Cup cross-platform prediction-market pricing monitor — live odds across Polymarket, Kalshi, 42, Manifold & Predict.fun

HEALTH 79 / Stable
// solo builder// hidden gem
06-2026 · today · yixuuuan
★45 Share View on GitHub ↗

// readme

pm-watcher · World Cup Cross-Platform Pricing Monitor

by Yixuan · 中文版

One World Cup, five prediction markets, five different answers. pm-watcher puts Polymarket, Kalshi, 42, Manifold and Predict.fun side by side as they price the 2026 World Cup in real time — so you can see where they agree, and where they diverge.

A read-only analysis tool. It places no orders, connects no wallet, and needs no platform account. It answers “what does the market think,” not “how do I bet.”

▶️ Live board: https://pm-watchers.up.railway.app/ — explore the two flagship views: the Match Recap board (how each finished match was priced vs. how it ended) and the collectible 48-nation team cards. Read-only, no prediction, no betting.

What it shows

  • Champion board — title odds for all 48 teams, five platforms side by side, plus a consensus price and a divergence heatmap (darker = the platforms disagree more)
  • Group winner — qualifying odds for all 12 groups (live data from Kalshi and 42)
  • Fixtures — a schedule of ~80 group-stage matches, auto-generated from the platforms’ own markets; tap any match for a cross-platform Win / Draw…
↑ The Undervalued Score +

How much a project earns versus how much attention it actually gets. Above 50 means the work is outrunning its audience. Recomputed nightly from commit velocity, contributor effort, issue resolution, fork utility, release cadence, and project maturity — divided by a logarithmic reach factor.

score  = signal / reach

signal = 0.25·commit_velocity   // commits in last 90 days (cap 30)
       + 0.20·contributor_work  // unique authors × velocity (cap 100)
       + 0.20·issue_resolution  // closed ÷ total issues
       + 0.20·fork_ratio        // forks ÷ stars (proxy for real usage)
       + 0.10·release_cadence   // releases in 90 days (cap 3)
       + age_bonus              // +0 to +0.30 after 6 months
       + homepage_bonus         // +0.05 if homepage is set

reach  = log₁₀(stars + watchers + 10)█
♥ The Health Score +

Is the project alive and maintained right now? A 0–100 pulse recomputed nightly from commit recency, rhythm, how fast issues close, and how quickly PRs get merged.

health = 0.35·recency       // days since last commit (90d decay)
       + 0.25·cadence       // commit rhythm consistency
       + 0.20·issue_health  // closed ÷ total issues
       + 0.20·pr_health     // merged ÷ total PRs█
◷ Health bands +

The colour and label on every card come straight from the health score.

Healthy   80 – 100   active, responsive, regular releases
Stable    60 – 79    maintained, steady, no alarms
Quiet     40 – 59    slowing down — watch this one
At Risk    0 – 39    going dark · candidate for rescue█
// Tags — what each label means +

Tags are independent behavioral signals computed nightly. A project can hold multiple at once. They drive the home page sections.

solo_builder      one person holds > 80% of commits (last 180d)
needs_contributors has open "help wanted" or "good first issue" labels
hidden_gem        < 100 stars · active in last 3 months · documented
legacy_hero       repo > 5 years old · committed this year
fork_magnet       forks/stars > 0.5 · used as template or dependency
release_machine   5+ releases in the last 90 days
under_pressure    > 10 open issues · ≤ 2 contributors · health ≥ 60
community_watch   watchers > stars · devs tracking before the public
community_hub     GitHub Discussions enabled · > 20 discussions
funded            maintainer has active funding channel█
★ Why rank against stars at all? +

Stars are an outcome, not effort. A project with 8 stars and daily commits is doing more interesting work than one coasting on 8k. We measure the building, then divide by the attention already received — so the genuinely undervalued rise to the top.

// stars   = lagging indicator
// commits = leading indicator
// we rank by the leading one█